FOMC · NQ · 2016–2026 · 86 decisions
FOMC keeps moving long after the statement drops.
144 pts
That's the average NQ range one hour after the 14:00 release. CPI and NFP spike then die in the first 5 minutes — FOMC just keeps bleeding for the whole hour.
How far NQ travels after the 14:00 release
Average high-to-low range, by window length
72 pts
96 pts
144 pts
5 min30 min60 min
The move doesn't fade after the statement bar. It expands the longer you hold.
Avg 5-min range
72 pts
median 54 · max 281
Wildest year
2022
180 pts avg · 281 max
Direction
None
−4 pts drift · goes both ways
How to use it
I check this before every FOMC so I'm not surprised by the size. Expect ~70 pts in the first 5 minutes and a move that keeps running toward ~140 pts over the hour. Don't bet on a direction — across 10 years there's no up or down edge, FOMC runs both ways.
Not advice · AI-backtested on 10y NQ · check it yourself