Seventeen news events, one setup, ten years of S&P 500 (ES) data. Every release works the same way: you mark the pre-news high and low, wait for price to run one side, let the rejection gap form, and enter when it breaks back inside.

This is the aggregate view — the same Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) reversal tested across Consumer Price Index (CPI), Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, PCE Inflation (PCE), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Jobless Claims and more. An optional Nasdaq 100 (NQ) filter only keeps the trade when the Nasdaq confirms the same move — same logic, swapped pair. Tested on 1-minute ES data, 2016 to 2026.

Rules: mark the pre-news high/low, sweep one side, wait for the rejection gap, enter on the break back inside. Stop one tick beyond the sweep (0.25 ES point). Target the opposite liquidity. If the opposite side gets swept before entry, the trade is dead — no edge left. The NQ filter keeps a trade only if the Nasdaq reaches its mirror target within the sweep window.

Performance — ES, 10 years (all 17 events, TP1 + BE)

No filter: 730 trades, profit factor 0.85, net -151.2 ES points, win rate 41.5%. With the Nasdaq 100 filter: 545 trades, profit factor 1.56, net +265.7 ES points, win rate 50.5%. The filter drops 25% of setups and flips the net from red to green.

Where the edge lives

Inflation prints carry the weight: CPI (profit factor 3.74, 36 trades), PPI (profit factor 2.79, 30 trades), NFP (profit factor 2.46, 31 trades), ISM Manufacturing (profit factor 3.69, 13 trades), Retail Sales (profit factor 2.07, 40 trades). Sentiment and housing-adjacent prints underperform: Philly Fed (profit factor 0.50), JOLTS (profit factor 0.62), CB Confidence (profit factor 0.66). See the per-event sub-pages for full breakdowns.

Why the filter matters

The S&P and the Nasdaq move together almost all the time. When the S&P hits its target but the Nasdaq doesn't follow, it's one index drifting alone — usually a fakeout, not a real reversal. Demanding Nasdaq confirmation drops those and keeps the setups where both indices turn together.

Disclaimer

545 filtered trades across 10 years. The edge concentrates in inflation prints and manufacturing PMIs — the rest is thinner. AI-assisted analysis, not financial advice.

Multi Event · IFVG + SMT