Article 1 — NFP Points

How far does the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) travel when Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) — the US monthly jobs report — prints at 8:30 ET? This tracks the high-to-low range of the 1-minute release candle across 102 events from 2016 to 2026, so you know what to expect before the number drops.

Year-by-Year — Release Candle Range (1m, 8:30 ET)

NFP volatility lives almost entirely inside the 1-minute release bar. How many points NQ travels high-to-low on that single candle, year by year.

Range 1m = the high minus the low (in NQ points) of the 8:30 ET candle — i.e. the full top-to-bottom travel during the 60 seconds of the release.

Year	Count	Avg Range 1m	Max Range 1m
2016	7	12.9 pts	22.8 pts
2017	10	7.6 pts	13.8 pts
2018	11	20.0 pts	45.0 pts
2019	11	22.4 pts	45.5 pts
2020	9	27.9 pts	52.2 pts
2021	11	43.5 pts	87.0 pts
2022	11	126.9 pts	240.8 pts
2023	10	90.4 pts	187.5 pts
2024	11	118.5 pts	199.8 pts
2025	7	110.1 pts	187.5 pts
2026	4	106.8 pts	173.8 pts

The average release-candle range went from 12.9 pts in 2016 to 110.1 pts in 2025 — an 8.5× expansion. Like CPI, the inflation regime turned NFP into a violent event.

Download — NFP Points PDF

Article 2 — NFP Fullport

These datas were my own tests to see which metrics are the best to fullport accounts. Tighter offsets (≤75 pts) are negative-expectancy — the manip wick eats them alive — but pushing the offset wider (80-100+) flips the strategy positive. I remind you guys that these datas are gathered with AI and this is NOT financial advice — datas could be wrong, so backtest yourself.

Wider offsets are required. The first round of tests (offsets 45-75) all came out negative — those stops are still inside the manip-wick range, so they get filled by the head-fake then bleed when price retraces. Pushing the offset to 80-150 pts skips the manip wick entirely. Best combo flips to positive expectancy that way.

Setup

OCO buy-stop / sell-stop ±Offset from release close, TP at fill ±TP, no SL, 30-min expiry. 24 combos tested (Offset ∈ {45, 60, 80, 100, 120, 150} × TP ∈ {20, 30, 50, 75}). 1 NQ pt ≈ $20 / 1 MNQ pt ≈ $2.

Where to place your stop and TP

After testing 24 combos across 102 NFP releases:

Stop offset: 100 pts — sits past the typical manip-wick range. Tighter offsets (≤75) get filled by the head-fake then bleed.
Take profit: 50 pts — large enough to clear the chop, tight enough to actually get hit.

Fill rate ~24% — you skip the NFPs that don't reach ±100 pts in 60 seconds. When you do fill, you're entering on the real directional leg.

Why Offset Size Matters

NFP triggers fast manipulation wicks both sides before committing to a direction. The median manip-wick reaches into the 50-80 pt range — anything closer and you get filled by the head-fake, then bleed on the retrace (no SL). Push the offset to 80-100+ and you skip the manipulation entirely; the only fills you get are real moves big enough to break through 100 pts in the release minute.

Interactive explorer

Filter the 24-combo grid live — pick offset / TP / year window — and download a tailored PDF report.

Related

CPI straddle (fullport model) — same fullport explorer on CPI.
Full IFVG + SMT NQ — NFP — sweep + IFVG entry variant on NFP.
Full IFVG + SMT GC — NFP — Gold variant.

Non-Farm Payrolls · Straddle