8:30 news candle · NQ · 2016–2026 · 1,166 days
On news, price takes both sides of the 8:30 candle.
70–86%
When news drops at 8:30, the first 1-minute candle sets a high and a low. Price breaks one side — then comes back to take the other side too, 70–86% of the time. A one-way day is the exception.
How often the other side gets taken — by event
Price breaks one side of the 8:30 candle, then trades to the opposite side (08:31–17:00 ET)
Bigger the data, wider the 8:30 candle and the longer before it flips — CPI/NFP take ~1h, Jobless Claims ~18 min.
Both sides
Almost always
the other side gets taken 70–86%
How fast it flips
CPI/NFP ~1h
smaller data ~18 min
The first break
Looks real, then flips
closes past the level 79–92%
How to use it
The first break of the 8:30 candle looks like a real move — it usually closes past the level — but it rarely is the only move: the other side gets taken too, almost every time. Don't marry the first spike. On CPI/NFP you've got ~1h before it flips; on smaller data it's minutes.
Not advice · AI-backtested on 10y NQ · check it yourself