Overview

The Globex IB50 strategy trades the 10-minute initial balance formed between 18:00 and 18:10 ET — the first ten minutes of the Globex reopen.

IB: the high-low range of 18:00–18:10 ET.
Bias: a break of either IB extreme arms the session bias (break high → long, break low → short).
Entry: at the 50% retracement of the IB range.
Stop-loss: the IB extreme on the entry side.
Take-profit: a multiple (the TP extension) of the mid-to-extreme distance.

One trade per session, flat before 02:00 ET.

TP extension legend — 1.0 = TP at opposite IB extreme (RR 1:1). 1.5 / 1.75 / 2.0 = TP extended to that multiple of the mid-to-extreme distance, SL unchanged.

Performance

Trailing 12 months (TP 1.75): 181 trades, profit factor 1.08, net +36.6 points, win rate 38%. Only marginally positive — ES is the weakest of the index variants. Published for completeness; the edge is too thin to lean on alone.

Methodology

Data: Databento 1-minute futures, April 2016 – May 2026.
Simulation: event-driven, fill at the exact mid of the entry bar. No slippage, no commissions.
Risk-reward: strict — SL and TP fixed at entry, no trailing, no partials.

All metrics from the raw trade log. The framework is identical across assets; only the instrument changes.