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Fed Rate Decision · IFVG + SMT

Nasdaq 100 futures · 14:00 ET release · 2016–2026 backtest · 26 events

Performance · FOMC IFVG + SMT

10y backtest · NQ futures · SMT confirmation on ES

Period2016 — 2026
Profit factor3.26gross / loss
Win rate79%23 W / 6 L
Sample29trades · 10y
Net pts+704cumulative
Avg R0.85win / risk
Max drawdown-77.5pts depth
Recovery9.1net / DD

Equity journey

Cumulative PnL + per-trade overlay · SMT-on

+0+200+400+600+800201620182020202220242026PEAK +753Oct 2025-77.5 DD · Nov 2022
Cumulative equity
Trade win
Trade loss

PnL distribution

Bins of 25 pts · n=29

1231135121-125-75-25+25+75+125

+44.2 avg win · -52 avg loss · right-skewed cluster

Quality factors

Sharpe (yearly)0.75
Avg win+44.2
Avg loss-52
Best trade+145.88 (2022-06-15)
Worst trade-77.5 (2022-11-02)
Time in market8 min / trade

Trade sequence

5W
L
2W
L
2W
L
2W
L
2W
L
10W
L
Longest W 10Longest L 1
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