CPI happens at 8:30 ET. The first move usually manipulates one side of the range, then distributes in the real direction: it runs the stops above or below the pre-news price, then reverses.

This study uses the pre-news high and low as targets, traded on Gold (GC). Price sweeps one side, leaves an Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) on the rejection, and you enter when it breaks back inside the range, aiming for the opposite side's liquidity. An optional Silver (SI) filter only keeps the trade when silver confirms the same move. Tested on 1-minute Gold data, 2016 to 2026.

Rules: sweep the pre-news high/low, wait for the rejection gap, enter on the break back inside. Stop sits 0.10 (one Gold tick) beyond the sweep. Target the opposite liquidity (the pre-news pivot). The silver filter keeps a trade only if silver reaches its mirror target within 2h30 of the release; if silver has no bars at 8:30 ET, that's a missing reading, not a disqualification.

Performance — GC, 10 years

No filter: 38 trades, profit factor 1.08, net +5.4 GC points. With the silver filter: 1 trade, win rate 0%, net -0.2 GC points. One filtered trade isn't enough to mean anything.

Why gold behaves differently from the Nasdaq

The Nasdaq and the S&P are both equity indices and move almost in lockstep, so cross-confirmation between them is a clean signal. Gold and silver are both metals, but their intraday liquidity splits at news: gold is deep and continuous, silver is thin and patchy. That makes the silver filter weak here — a lot of its "no confirmation" readings are just gaps in silver's data, not a real disagreement.

Disclaimer

38 setups total, 1 filtered trade. AI-assisted analysis, not financial advice.

Consumer Price Index · IFVG + SMT